[Bill,
May 19, 2009]
Carville: Democrats will be in power for 40 years
Noted Democratic strategist James Carville claims in a new book that the 2008 election was a watershed election for Democrats, and the Donks will be in power for the next 40 years. I might point out that the Democrats have been the dominant party since 1930.
The Democrats controlled the House:
1930-46
1948-52
1954-94
2006-present
R-16 years, D=60 years +
The Democrats controlled the Senate:
1932-46
1948-52
1954-80
1986-94
2000 (a week)
2001-02
2006-present
R-21 years, D=55 years
The Democrats controlled the Presidency
1932-52
1960-68
1976-80
1992-00
2008-present
R-36 years, D-40+ years.
There has been Democratic control over both houses of Congress and the Presidency:
2008 to present
1992-94
1976-80
1960-68
1948-52
1932-46.
That is, 28+ years in the lifetime of most Americans.
There has been Republican control over both houses of Congress and the Presidency:
1952-54
Jan. 20-June 6, 2001
2002-06.
That is, less than seven years in the lifetime of most Americans. And in all that time, the GOP had only a slight majority in the Senate.
Granted, the GOP has controlled the Presidency 36 of the past 56 years, but often balanced by a Democratic Congress.
Potential GOP control of the judiciary has been mitigated by Democratic dominance of the Senate, and has failed to either nominate or confirm conservative Supreme Court justices. (I count five: Rehnquist, Scalia, Thomas, Roberts and Alito; Byron White, a JFK appointee, was a sixth. Failed GOP picks include: O'Connor, Souter, Kennedy, Stevens, Powell, Burger, Blackmun, Warren and Brennan.)
Not only that, but two of the GOP presidents -- George W. Bush and Richard Nixon, were some of the biggest spending presidents in the past 76 years. The joke going around now is that Nixon couldn't be nominated as a Democrat today because he'd be too liberal. (Nixon put in place wage-and-price controls, and vastly expanded the federal budget, added EPA and OSHA.)
Further to the Donks' advantage: The Democrats have had more registered Democrats than Republicans virtually the entire 76 years. They've dominated the media, the universities, the "soft" professions such as literature, music and the arts; the teaching professions, the mainstream Protestant churches, and held a steady majority in the Catholic Church. Ethnically, they've been the overwhelming favorite of all minority groups, single women, and for most of that time, the youth culture. And in the past 30 years, Democrats have started to dominate the finance industry, the upper middle class, and rich elites, especially on cultural issues.
Despite its disadvantages, the GOP has managed to fight the good fight. The GOP managed, just before electing Dubya, to set the stage for a major revival. But the GOP wasn't able to land a knockout blow. Now things are back to the Democrats, that is, normal.
James Carville's thesis is that the GOP has controlled the presidency for 28 out of 40 years, and thus was dominant, and it's now the Democrats' turn to dominate. Perhaps that's the future -- but the GOP was never dominant during the past 40 years. It never had a 60 vote senate majority, a solid majority in the house, the presidency, and never got a five-vote majority on the Supreme Court. In this sense, Carville is wrong. There may have been a GOP moment, but it went by awful quickly.
Now we're listening to Democratic triumphalism. It would be a little like the Yankees winning the World Series this year and saying, "Finally, we've overthrown the Red Sox dynasty."
The Democrats controlled the House:
1930-46
1948-52
1954-94
2006-present
R-16 years, D=60 years +
The Democrats controlled the Senate:
1932-46
1948-52
1954-80
1986-94
2000 (a week)
2001-02
2006-present
R-21 years, D=55 years
The Democrats controlled the Presidency
1932-52
1960-68
1976-80
1992-00
2008-present
R-36 years, D-40+ years.
There has been Democratic control over both houses of Congress and the Presidency:
2008 to present
1992-94
1976-80
1960-68
1948-52
1932-46.
That is, 28+ years in the lifetime of most Americans.
There has been Republican control over both houses of Congress and the Presidency:
1952-54
Jan. 20-June 6, 2001
2002-06.
That is, less than seven years in the lifetime of most Americans. And in all that time, the GOP had only a slight majority in the Senate.
Granted, the GOP has controlled the Presidency 36 of the past 56 years, but often balanced by a Democratic Congress.
Potential GOP control of the judiciary has been mitigated by Democratic dominance of the Senate, and has failed to either nominate or confirm conservative Supreme Court justices. (I count five: Rehnquist, Scalia, Thomas, Roberts and Alito; Byron White, a JFK appointee, was a sixth. Failed GOP picks include: O'Connor, Souter, Kennedy, Stevens, Powell, Burger, Blackmun, Warren and Brennan.)
Not only that, but two of the GOP presidents -- George W. Bush and Richard Nixon, were some of the biggest spending presidents in the past 76 years. The joke going around now is that Nixon couldn't be nominated as a Democrat today because he'd be too liberal. (Nixon put in place wage-and-price controls, and vastly expanded the federal budget, added EPA and OSHA.)
Further to the Donks' advantage: The Democrats have had more registered Democrats than Republicans virtually the entire 76 years. They've dominated the media, the universities, the "soft" professions such as literature, music and the arts; the teaching professions, the mainstream Protestant churches, and held a steady majority in the Catholic Church. Ethnically, they've been the overwhelming favorite of all minority groups, single women, and for most of that time, the youth culture. And in the past 30 years, Democrats have started to dominate the finance industry, the upper middle class, and rich elites, especially on cultural issues.
Despite its disadvantages, the GOP has managed to fight the good fight. The GOP managed, just before electing Dubya, to set the stage for a major revival. But the GOP wasn't able to land a knockout blow. Now things are back to the Democrats, that is, normal.
James Carville's thesis is that the GOP has controlled the presidency for 28 out of 40 years, and thus was dominant, and it's now the Democrats' turn to dominate. Perhaps that's the future -- but the GOP was never dominant during the past 40 years. It never had a 60 vote senate majority, a solid majority in the house, the presidency, and never got a five-vote majority on the Supreme Court. In this sense, Carville is wrong. There may have been a GOP moment, but it went by awful quickly.
Now we're listening to Democratic triumphalism. It would be a little like the Yankees winning the World Series this year and saying, "Finally, we've overthrown the Red Sox dynasty."