[Bill,
April 17, 2008]
My comment on global warming
Harry recently read a book and reviewed it on his blog.
Here is the response (with some additions) that I left.
*****
I've mentioned before, in fact frequently, that if AGW is true, we are FUBAR unless nature has a self-regulating climate mechanism to compensate for our behavior.
To combat AGW would require a level of cooperation among peoples never before seen, and that is frankly, flies in the face of everything we know about the human race.
Mankind has never gotten buy in from everyone on the planet to do anything that massive. We've eradicated a few diseases, yes, and we've made progress in many areas.
But I can't imagine MANKIND disowning FIRE. And we'd have to get damned close to that to combat AGW. Even if you shut down all the cars and factories, we'd still have seven billion cold, hungry, naked monkeys needing to burn things to keep warm and cook their food. So you'd have massive deforestation, plenty of fire and smoke, and CO2 and other gases in the atmosphere.
If AGW is true, then that is our destiny, short of a natural compensation or massive government interventions (which realistically, would require totalitarianism, tyranny and genocide).
Our species dies on the AGW hill if AGW is true, and takes a lot more species with us. On the other hand, it would be a good time to be a tropical fish.
Unless ... and this is a big unless ... unless we find a way to make energy out of something else that doesn't produce greenhouse gases. Geothermal is our best long-term prospect — as I've said before, the earth is a giant fireball with a thin layer of crust that's mostly made of water. It's practically a steam engine already. But there's also solar, wind, nuclear, and who knows what's beyond the horizon.
Getting to that point fast enough is the only hope we have in mankind's control (if AGW is true). That will require an advanced, fossil-fueled technological economy that will allow those inventions to come to pass.
Because we cannot, knowing our human history, sacrifice our way out of it. We might and probably will invent our way out of it. If AGW is true.
And chances are, given man's natural propensity for inventing stuff and trying to find/create cheap energy, technological solutions fall entirely within what we know about mankind. We are clever monkeys. We're going to do it anyway.
Thus, don't despair. There is only despair if you see mankind trying to do what he cannot do by his nature, that is, get along with everyone. However, there is great hope if mankind does what he's always done — make tools.
Yes, we monkeys are slow, weak, poorly balanced, possess poor hearing, olfactory nerves and eyesight, and have little in the way of claws or teeth. We are also contentious, contrary, rebellious, proud and unforgiving.
But we have big brains, language, opposable thumbs, and natural curiosity. And we are this world's masters of fire. Don't bet against us.
Here is the response (with some additions) that I left.
*****
I've mentioned before, in fact frequently, that if AGW is true, we are FUBAR unless nature has a self-regulating climate mechanism to compensate for our behavior.
To combat AGW would require a level of cooperation among peoples never before seen, and that is frankly, flies in the face of everything we know about the human race.
Mankind has never gotten buy in from everyone on the planet to do anything that massive. We've eradicated a few diseases, yes, and we've made progress in many areas.
But I can't imagine MANKIND disowning FIRE. And we'd have to get damned close to that to combat AGW. Even if you shut down all the cars and factories, we'd still have seven billion cold, hungry, naked monkeys needing to burn things to keep warm and cook their food. So you'd have massive deforestation, plenty of fire and smoke, and CO2 and other gases in the atmosphere.
If AGW is true, then that is our destiny, short of a natural compensation or massive government interventions (which realistically, would require totalitarianism, tyranny and genocide).
Our species dies on the AGW hill if AGW is true, and takes a lot more species with us. On the other hand, it would be a good time to be a tropical fish.
Unless ... and this is a big unless ... unless we find a way to make energy out of something else that doesn't produce greenhouse gases. Geothermal is our best long-term prospect — as I've said before, the earth is a giant fireball with a thin layer of crust that's mostly made of water. It's practically a steam engine already. But there's also solar, wind, nuclear, and who knows what's beyond the horizon.
Getting to that point fast enough is the only hope we have in mankind's control (if AGW is true). That will require an advanced, fossil-fueled technological economy that will allow those inventions to come to pass.
Because we cannot, knowing our human history, sacrifice our way out of it. We might and probably will invent our way out of it. If AGW is true.
And chances are, given man's natural propensity for inventing stuff and trying to find/create cheap energy, technological solutions fall entirely within what we know about mankind. We are clever monkeys. We're going to do it anyway.
Thus, don't despair. There is only despair if you see mankind trying to do what he cannot do by his nature, that is, get along with everyone. However, there is great hope if mankind does what he's always done — make tools.
Yes, we monkeys are slow, weak, poorly balanced, possess poor hearing, olfactory nerves and eyesight, and have little in the way of claws or teeth. We are also contentious, contrary, rebellious, proud and unforgiving.
But we have big brains, language, opposable thumbs, and natural curiosity. And we are this world's masters of fire. Don't bet against us.