Bill's Notes

[Industrialblog, November 20, 2006]
What's at stake
Victor Davis Hanson sums up the stakes in Iraq. Regardless of how it started, or what a mistake it was, or how it's been mishandled, the U.S. is in a grave situation there, and the stakes are extremely high.

In short, while the Islamists get bolder and crazier, we become more timid and all too rational, quibbling over this terrorist's affinities and that militia's particular grievances--in hopes of cutting some magical deal with an imaginary moderate imam or nonexistent reasonable militia chief or Middle East dictator.

Well beyond us now is any overarching Churchillian vision of our enemies. We lack the practical understanding of an FDR that all of these Islamists loathe us far more than they despise each other. Their infighting, after all, is like the transitory bickering of thieves over the division of loot that always pales before their shared hatred of the targeted bank owner.

So we are at a crossroads of all places in Iraq. The war there has metamorphosized from a successful effort to remove a mass-murdering dictator into the frontlines of the entire struggle between Islamic radicalism and Western liberality. If we withdraw before the elected government stabilizes, the consequences won't just be the loss of the perceptions of power, but perhaps the loss of real power. What follows won't be the impression that we are weak, but the fact that we are--as we convince ourselves we cannot win against such horrific enemies, and so should never again try.

That stumble will send a shudder throughout the so-called West that will be felt worldwide. It will insidiously show that the premodern world proved the master of the postmodern, as al Qaeda's Alfred Rosenberg, the pudgy Dr. Zawahiri, boasted all along--whose followers will not be happy with a successful defense when they think they can go back on an even more successful offense. [Emphasis mine.]


Read the whole thing.
Super G (www):
Look at the deaths each day. They are largely native Iraqis that are dying. Shiites are killing Sunnis and Sunnis are killing Shiites. It is much more a civil war than anything else. You can surely lay in there that there are terrorists operating against the US - but the biggest body count isn't coming from US deaths.

The "go big" scenario where we impose order isn't even plausible. We're now trying to hang in there in hopes the Iraqis will decide they'd rather have peace than murder each other. If there is going to be a peace it has be brokered between or take place between Iraqis.

IMO it was a fundamental mistake to and remains a fundamental mistake to say that Iraq is the whole of the War on Terror. The Iraq War has already cost us real power, not just the perception of power.

I will, however, say that I don't think I know the right path in Iraq right now. A loss (defined as not installing Democracy) doesn't help the War on Terror, but realism has to be our guide.
11.20.2006 9:17pm