[Industrialblog,
November 8, 2006]
A good summing up of what happened
Via the Corner, Rep. Mike Pence, summarizes the bottom line and what went wrong:
Election day 2006 will be remembered as a turning point in American political history. Twenty-five years after the Reagan Administration came to Washington with a conservative agenda of limited government, the American people chose a different course.
It is the duty of the losing party in a free election to humbly accept defeat and to acknowledge that the people are sovereign in the People's House.
As we examine the results of this election, it is imperative that we listen to the American people and learn the right lessons.
Some will argue that we lost our majority because of scandals at home and challenges abroad. I say, we did not just lose our majority, we lost our way.
While the scandals of the 109th Congress harmed our cause, the greatest scandal in Washington, D.C. is runaway federal spending.
After 1994, we were a majority committed to balanced federal budgets, entitlement reform and advancing the principles of limited government. In recent years, our majority voted to expand the federal government's role in education, entitlements and pursued spending policies that created record deficits and national debt.
This was not in the Contract with America and Republican voters said, "enough is enough." Our opponents will say that the American people rejected our Republican vision. I say the American people didn't quit on the Contract with America, we did. And in so doing, we severed the bonds of trust between our party and millions of our most ardent supporters.
As the 110th Congress convenes next year, Republicans must cordially accept defeat and dedicate ourselves to advancing our cause as the loyal opposition knowing that the only way to retake our natural, governing majority, is to renew our commitment to limited government, national defense, traditional values and reform.
In all seriousness, they might well have.
Preliminary analysis of exit polling shows evidence of a decent amount of voter defections.
For instance, one third of all white evangelicals report voting Democrat in this election.
Not to throttle a dead pony - but that just doesn't normally happen in American politics.
Anyone can arm-chair quarterback - so, I've got as much proof for my analysis as you've got for yours.
It's not my analysis. I'd like to believe that the reasons that the republicans lost is that they were too much like democrats, and had they just been more economically conservative they would have picked up seats in the house and senate.
But it seems like a very odd analysis that republicans lost because The People wanted stronger economic conservatives. I'm open to the idea, but I'd like some better proof for it than the wishful thinking of economic conservatives, including the various prominent conservatives of the blogosphere.
But if your interpretation — that the republicans lost because they weren't economically conservative enough — becomes the prevailing wisdom, it will certainly do the republicans good.
But republicans took away a rather different lesson, I think, after being punished for the government shut down under Clinton.
(Btw, sorry for the typo; I'm a fast touch typist and so I end up making word-level typos much more often than letter-level typos; sometimes this is much more amusing than merely substituting "staid" for "stayed"; they're not always phonetically similar words.)
When you see a usually loyal segment crossing party lines (as with the 1/3 or white Evangelicals) - it invites that sort of speculation.
Evangelicals have plenty of other reasons to be displeased with the GOP right now - so they might not have been crossing party lines because of fiscal policy.
At this point, an equally valid (ie speculative) analysis might be that they crossed party lines because of disenchantment with the direction of the war. Or it could be down to local issues.
I'd argue that the biggest lesson that the GOP got from Clinton is how to frame/spin an issue to your benefit - and I think Rove has learned it very well.
Obviously not well enough. :)
Instapundit has posted another republican congresscritter saying that the election results were the result of runaway spending and other non-economically conservative measures. So perhaps your view will become the dominant one.
And in many ways, that's what really matters. There's too little information in elections to really figure out what they mean, so this may well be one of those situations in which perception is more important than reality.
Especially since depending on who is running, a very different set of people might end up voting in the next election than voted in this one.
I think the GOP could bounce back quite rapidly if it would get back to core principles of limited government, fiscal responsibility, and acted with a little bit of humility in the face of corruption issues (America almost always accepts a sincere apology). In addition to moving from it's base values, I think the GOP was being punished for not putting any kind of reasonable check on the performance of the White House.
You may be happy to hear that I split my ticket because there was a GOP County Commisioner that I thought was good. Otherwise, the Democrats ran unopposed or have proven to be responsible representatives.
If the GOP reacts to this election by thinking they just need to be meaner and get a few more gay marriage bans on the books, then you may find the Democrats will continue to gain power. In a way, the GOP was fortunate so few Senate seats were up for grabs.
Arizona became the first state to defeat an amendment to ban gay marriage
Bill, I don't believe the Bible supports gay relationships. However, I think that if the GOP focuses on this type of issue over the war and the deficit you guys are in trouble. Contrast Bush's rushing back to DC to sign a bill directed at Terry Schiavo and his initial response to Katrina. That kind of stuff killed the GOP.
However, I still think you could have carried off a lot of the legislation of morality stuff if the GOP had taken care of the deficit, the corruption, and the war. What I really mean is first things first.
I'm screwed anyways --- I don't see any of my pet desires at the top of Democrats list either: 4-6 year plan to balance the budget, etc.
Thanks for being so cordial about this.