[Bill,
May 28, 2008]
Will Hillary run as an Independent?
I'm starting to think Hillary ain't gonna give up.
When you learn chess, one of the mistakes some people think is you need to take a straightforward approach to the game. That is, you take and hold territory, widen your threats, and attempt to create a material advantage. But chess, like life, has a temporal component as well.
All this is to mean you may recognize, during a game of chess, that while you are behind in development, or even in pieces or territory, that you may have a window of opportunity for checkmate. If that attempt fails, you know you will lose. However, you also realize that if you attempt to regain your material or territorial losses, you will also lose. The only option, at that point, is forward and forward — to relentlessly attack the king and hope you can get catch in time. Indeed, you may purposely sacrifice territory and material to gain time. After all, you only have a limited amount of moves for that victory. But many times you can do it.
Hillary's career may have reached such a state where her best and maybe only option is forward. What she needs to know is if she'll be VP. I think if Obama gives her the nod, then she'll stay on board. But if she loses the nomination and Obama picks another VP — watch out. Because Hillary may recognize that her best option for ever securing the presidency is as an independent this November.
Here's why:
1. Say McCain wins. Hillary has to go through this whole process in 2012 for the Dems, with no guarantee that she won't get beat as she was this year in the nomination process.
2. Say Obama wins without her. Obama is the nominee in 2012 and win or lose in 2012, his VP is the presumptive favorite in 2016, at which point she'll be 73, and too old to challenge that VP effectively.
3. This year, Hillary has a good chance of winning a three-way race.
No, this year is Hillary's best chance. She has to know that she's perilously close to crossing the rubicon or has already crossed it, and that her best — maybe only — options are forward.
When you learn chess, one of the mistakes some people think is you need to take a straightforward approach to the game. That is, you take and hold territory, widen your threats, and attempt to create a material advantage. But chess, like life, has a temporal component as well.
All this is to mean you may recognize, during a game of chess, that while you are behind in development, or even in pieces or territory, that you may have a window of opportunity for checkmate. If that attempt fails, you know you will lose. However, you also realize that if you attempt to regain your material or territorial losses, you will also lose. The only option, at that point, is forward and forward — to relentlessly attack the king and hope you can get catch in time. Indeed, you may purposely sacrifice territory and material to gain time. After all, you only have a limited amount of moves for that victory. But many times you can do it.
Hillary's career may have reached such a state where her best and maybe only option is forward. What she needs to know is if she'll be VP. I think if Obama gives her the nod, then she'll stay on board. But if she loses the nomination and Obama picks another VP — watch out. Because Hillary may recognize that her best option for ever securing the presidency is as an independent this November.
Here's why:
1. Say McCain wins. Hillary has to go through this whole process in 2012 for the Dems, with no guarantee that she won't get beat as she was this year in the nomination process.
2. Say Obama wins without her. Obama is the nominee in 2012 and win or lose in 2012, his VP is the presumptive favorite in 2016, at which point she'll be 73, and too old to challenge that VP effectively.
3. This year, Hillary has a good chance of winning a three-way race.
No, this year is Hillary's best chance. She has to know that she's perilously close to crossing the rubicon or has already crossed it, and that her best — maybe only — options are forward.