Bill's Notes

Last political prediction post, I said the next president would be one of six people: Obama, Clinton, McCain, Giuliani, Romney or Huckabee. I was half-kidding because it's pretty obviously so. I'd like to cut it down further, but I really can't tell.

This is a tough political race. Very few of us have ever seen anything like it. It's the first presidential race since 1928(!) in which neither a vice president or president has sought his party's nomination. And this has never happened under the current primary system.

In these strange new waters, it's difficult to see.

But I'm going to make some predictions based on what I see now:

Huckabee won't make it.
Romney has a decent shot at the nomination.
McCain has a good shot at winning it all.
Giuliani is a wild card. Anything could happen with him.

Obama won't make it.
Clinton will.

But who knows? Next week this may be laughable ...

I was talking about relationships the other day, and I overheard myself saying something that's a classic double-bind. The person asked me something like, "How can you really know the other person in a relationship." And I responded, "You never really know someone's character until you're broken up." Of course, how can you have a relationship if you can't know them, and you can't really know them until you've split up. Welcome to the double bind.

I could lay out the reasoning in some detail, but I think folks can intuitively understand the half-truth buried in that statement. How many people have found that there ex-significant other suddenly begins telling you "how they really feel"? Or act in a way that seems suddenly out of character.

Still, I don't buy it. Over the last few days, I've altered the idea a little bit: What really reveals a person's character is how they react to the word "no" to something that's very important.

No.

Do they accept it? Try to understand it? Go through a growth process? A challenge to find another, sane way of resolving the problem?

Or do they argue incessantly? Fight about it? Whine, complain, act passive-aggressive, practice avoidance, plot revenge, incur resentments? Freak out? Get abusive, even violent? Do they get manipulative and try to find another way?

Or do they get neurotic? Weepy?

Drug addicts, for example, can often seem completely reasonable and pleasant to doctors when they're seeking to con the medicine men for a fake prescription. When they hear no, they often change instantly. The masks drops and the doctor sees them for what they really are.

No.

FTR, I have mixed results in handling no's when something's important to me. Wish I could report otherwise. Sometimes I see "no" as a growth opportunity and a challenge to either alter my desires or find a better way to accomplish my goals; other times, not so much.

I've had anxiety all day. It's the kind that feels like someone's drilling a hole through your gut. I used to get it before each swim meet, specifically, right up until the moment I dove in the water. Occasionally, I get it when I'm under extreme deadline pressure -- which I am at this moment. It'll go away once I complete the gazillion (actually, it's three) tasks I have to do right now.

They say psychological pain is a call to growth. To which, my normal reaction would be, "Fuck that -- I want to be numb." But I asked for this. I've been trying to let go of some personal stuff I've been ignoring for a year or so, and face up to some personal things about myself, and it's like I brought an avalanche of emotions upon myself. Then compounded the whole problem with deadline stress.

I suppose I'll just have to finish up, feel this stuff, and keep going.

Don't get worried. I'll be all right. Just need to vent.

You know, I'm still tired from the last presidential election. Seems like the last four years have flown by. And it seems like this presidential election cycle is endless.

So right now, all I can predict right now is the screamingly obvious -- that there will be a cacophony of commentary, and that the mainstream media (and many bloggers) will end up making a lot of noise about and overstate the significaance of every little twist and turn. Result: What's probably pretty obvious to the casual observer will seem obvious only in retrospect to those closely following the race.

The only thing I can predict (barring unforeseeable events) is that our next president will be one of the following six people: McCain, Clinton, Obama, Romney, Giuliani and Huckabee.

If you were the HR manager of the U.S. government and you were choosing the CEO from these people, who would you recommend the Board choose?

Me? I would say McCain, Romney or Giuliani.

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